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politics· KXARREST-27JAN

Who will be arrested in 2026?

Before Jan 2027

$2.6M volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970Live

Market outcomes

Current implied probabilities and volume.

30 markets

Ilhan Omar

kalshi · open

$48.7K vol

Yes29.0%

Buy Yes 29.0%

No72.0%

Buy No 72.0%

John Brennan

kalshi · open

$156.1K vol

Yes20.0%

Buy Yes 20.0%

No83.0%

Buy No 83.0%

Mahmoud Khalil

kalshi · open

$12.3K vol

Yes18.0%

Buy Yes 18.0%

No83.0%

Buy No 83.0%

James Clapper

kalshi · open

$66.9K vol

Yes10.0%

Buy Yes 10.0%

No91.9%

Buy No 91.9%

Lee Jun-seok

kalshi · open

$3.8K vol

Yes8.00%

Buy Yes 8.00%

No97.7%

Buy No 97.7%

Loretta Lynch

kalshi · open

$8.8K vol

Yes7.10%

Buy Yes 7.10%

No97.9%

Buy No 97.9%

Anthony Fauci

kalshi · open

$205.4K vol

Yes6.80%

Buy Yes 6.80%

No94.5%

Buy No 94.5%

Letitia James

kalshi · open

$164.0K vol

Yes6.80%

Buy Yes 6.80%

No93.9%

Buy No 93.9%

Tom Homan

kalshi · open

$14.3K vol

Yes6.00%

Buy Yes 6.00%

No95.0%

Buy No 95.0%

Susan Rice

kalshi · open

$14.0K vol

Yes6.00%

Buy Yes 6.00%

No97.7%

Buy No 97.7%

Lisa Cook

kalshi · open

$34.6K vol

Yes5.80%

Buy Yes 5.80%

No96.9%

Buy No 96.9%

Benjamin Netanyahu

kalshi · open

$12.9K vol

Yes5.60%

Buy Yes 5.60%

No95.9%

Buy No 95.9%

Candace Owens

kalshi · open

$6.0K vol

Yes5.60%

Buy Yes 5.60%

No99.5%

Buy No 99.5%

Adam Schiff

kalshi · open

$59.0K vol

Yes5.50%

Buy Yes 5.50%

No98.0%

Buy No 98.0%

Lee Jae Myung

kalshi · open

$4.2K vol

Yes5.00%

Buy Yes 5.00%

No98.0%

Buy No 98.0%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

kalshi · open

$13.4K vol

Yes4.50%

Buy Yes 4.50%

No98.4%

Buy No 98.4%

Hillary Clinton

kalshi · open

$226.5K vol

Yes4.40%

Buy Yes 4.40%

No97.9%

Buy No 97.9%

Barack Obama

kalshi · open

$273.6K vol

Yes4.00%

Buy Yes 4.00%

No97.5%

Buy No 97.5%

John Kerry

kalshi · open

$7.0K vol

Yes3.90%

Buy Yes 3.90%

No98.0%

Buy No 98.0%

Brandon Johnson

kalshi · open

$4.2K vol

Yes3.70%

Buy Yes 3.70%

No98.0%

Buy No 98.0%

Gavin Newsom

kalshi · open

$48.4K vol

Yes3.60%

Buy Yes 3.60%

No98.0%

Buy No 98.0%

Bill Clinton

kalshi · open

$43.2K vol

Yes3.60%

Buy Yes 3.60%

No97.8%

Buy No 97.8%

Pam Bondi

kalshi · open

$13.4K vol

Yes3.20%

Buy Yes 3.20%

No98.5%

Buy No 98.5%

Kash Patel

kalshi · open

$6.8K vol

Yes3.00%

Buy Yes 3.00%

No97.6%

Buy No 97.6%

Joe Biden

kalshi · open

$10.2K vol

Yes2.50%

Buy Yes 2.50%

No98.9%

Buy No 98.9%

James Comey

kalshi · closed

$1.1M vol

Yes0.00%

Buy Yes 0.00%

No0.00%

Buy No 0.00%

Nicolás Maduro

kalshi · closed

$28.5K vol

Yes0.00%

Buy Yes 0.00%

No0.00%

Buy No 0.00%

Greta Thunberg

kalshi · closed

$6.2K vol

Yes0.00%

Buy Yes 0.00%

No0.00%

Buy No 0.00%

Han Duck-soo

kalshi · closed

$6.0K vol

Yes0.00%

Buy Yes 0.00%

No0.00%

Buy No 0.00%

Kim Keon Hee

kalshi · closed

$2.5K vol

Yes0.00%

Buy Yes 0.00%

No0.00%

Buy No 0.00%

Timeline

Opened: Oct 13, 2026
Closes: Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

If Ilhan Omar is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules