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Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity

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economics· KXNBERRECESSQ

When will the next US recession start?

Next recession

$520.9K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970Live

Market outcomes

Current implied probabilities and volume.

6 markets

Q1 2026

kalshi · open

$86.2K vol

Yes4.90%

Buy Yes 4.90%

No99.7%

Buy No 99.7%

Q4 2025

kalshi · open

$97.4K vol

Yes4.30%

Buy Yes 4.30%

No99.1%

Buy No 99.1%

Q4 2024

kalshi · open

$46.2K vol

Yes3.10%

Buy Yes 3.10%

No99.8%

Buy No 99.8%

Q3 2025

kalshi · open

$83.7K vol

Yes2.80%

Buy Yes 2.80%

No99.9%

Buy No 99.9%

Q1 2025

kalshi · open

$76.0K vol

Yes0.90%

Buy Yes 0.90%

No100.0%

Buy No 100.0%

Q2 2025

kalshi · open

$131.4K vol

Yes0.10%

Buy Yes 0.10%

No100.0%

Buy No 100.0%

Timeline

Opened: Aug 16, 2025
Closes: Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules