<5
polymarket · open
Yes82.0%
Buy Yes 82.0%
No22.0%
Buy No 22.0%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
climate & science· POLY-102763
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
$530.4K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$107.4K vol
5-6
polymarket · open
Yes24.0%
Buy Yes 24.0%
No83.0%
Buy No 83.0%
9-10
polymarket · open
Yes0.80%
Buy Yes 0.80%
No99.7%
Buy No 99.7%
>16
polymarket · open
Yes0.60%
Buy Yes 0.60%
No99.9%
Buy No 99.9%
7-8
polymarket · open
Yes0.50%
Buy Yes 0.50%
No99.8%
Buy No 99.8%
11-12
polymarket · open
Yes0.20%
Buy Yes 0.20%
No99.9%
Buy No 99.9%
15-16
polymarket · open
Yes0.10%
Buy Yes 0.10%
No100.0%
Buy No 100.0%
13-14
polymarket · open
Yes0.10%
Buy Yes 0.10%
No100.0%
Buy No 100.0%
Timeline
- Opened
- Dec 12, 2025
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.