$100M
polymarket · open
Yes98.2%
Buy Yes 98.2%
No2.40%
Buy No 2.40%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
cryptocrypto· POLY-103469
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$3.8M volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$83.9K vol
$200M
polymarket · open
Yes98.2%
Buy Yes 98.2%
No3.80%
Buy No 3.80%
$300M
polymarket · open
Yes93.8%
Buy Yes 93.8%
No7.00%
Buy No 7.00%
$500M
polymarket · open
Yes86.0%
Buy Yes 86.0%
No15.0%
Buy No 15.0%
$800M
polymarket · open
Yes72.0%
Buy Yes 72.0%
No29.0%
Buy No 29.0%
$1B
polymarket · open
Yes57.0%
Buy Yes 57.0%
No44.0%
Buy No 44.0%
$2B
polymarket · open
Yes26.8%
Buy Yes 26.8%
No78.9%
Buy No 78.9%
$3B
polymarket · open
Yes12.2%
Buy Yes 12.2%
No89.7%
Buy No 89.7%
$4B
polymarket · open
Yes6.00%
Buy Yes 6.00%
No94.6%
Buy No 94.6%
$5B
polymarket · open
Yes4.40%
Buy Yes 4.40%
No96.7%
Buy No 96.7%
Timeline
- Opened
- Apr 4, 2026
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".