Below 4.50%
polymarket · open
Yes68.0%
Buy Yes 68.0%
No37.0%
Buy No 37.0%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
economics· POLY-1116515
How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$31.5K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$4.6K vol
Below 4.40%
polymarket · open
Yes63.0%
Buy Yes 63.0%
No65.0%
Buy No 65.0%
Below 4.30%
polymarket · open
Yes31.0%
Buy Yes 31.0%
No74.0%
Buy No 74.0%
Below 4.20%
polymarket · open
Yes12.0%
Buy Yes 12.0%
No91.0%
Buy No 91.0%
Below 4.10%
polymarket · open
Yes7.00%
Buy Yes 7.00%
No95.0%
Buy No 95.0%
Below 3.90%
polymarket · open
Yes6.80%
Buy Yes 6.80%
No98.7%
Buy No 98.7%
Below 4.00%
polymarket · open
Yes5.90%
Buy Yes 5.90%
No96.6%
Buy No 96.6%
Below 4.70%
polymarket · closed
Yes0.00%
Buy Yes 0.00%
No0.00%
Buy No 0.00%
Below 4.60%
polymarket · closed
Yes0.00%
Buy Yes 0.00%
No0.00%
Buy No 0.00%
Timeline
- Opened
- Oct 1, 2026
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).