Timeline

Opened

Oct 28, 2026

Closes

Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election is a minority government. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A minority government is defined as a government whose parties together hold fewer than 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset at the time the government is approved in a vote of confidence. Seats will be attributed to parties according to the Knesset factions in place at the time of that vote. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. Only the seats attributed to the government's parties at that moment will be considered; seats gained or lost afterward will not affect the resolution of this market. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not count toward the government's seat total. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.