Below 4.59%
polymarket · open
Yes65.0%
Buy Yes 65.0%
No45.0%
Buy No 45.0%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
economics· POLY-1310113
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
$962 volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$113 vol
Below 4.56%
polymarket · open
Yes61.0%
Buy Yes 61.0%
No46.0%
Buy No 46.0%
Below 4.53%
polymarket · open
Yes61.0%
Buy Yes 61.0%
No58.0%
Buy No 58.0%
Below 4.50%
polymarket · open
Yes49.0%
Buy Yes 49.0%
No72.0%
Buy No 72.0%
Below 4.47%
polymarket · open
Yes47.0%
Buy Yes 47.0%
No77.0%
Buy No 77.0%
Below 4.44%
polymarket · open
Yes46.0%
Buy Yes 46.0%
No76.0%
Buy No 76.0%
Below 4.41%
polymarket · open
Yes41.0%
Buy Yes 41.0%
No86.0%
Buy No 86.0%
Below 4.37%
polymarket · open
Yes35.0%
Buy Yes 35.0%
No90.0%
Buy No 90.0%
Below 4.33%
polymarket · open
Yes29.0%
Buy Yes 29.0%
No94.0%
Buy No 94.0%
Timeline
- Opened
- Nov 3, 2026
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).