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politicselection· POLY-1327813

French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

$7.1K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970

Market outcomes

Current implied probabilities and volume.

16 markets

Édouard Philippe

polymarket · open

$1.1K vol
Yes34.0%
Buy Yes 34.0%
No87.0%
Buy No 87.0%

Christine Lagarde

polymarket · open

$212 vol
Yes26.0%
Buy Yes 26.0%
No98.0%
Buy No 98.0%

Raphaël Glucksmann

polymarket · open

$144 vol
Yes26.0%
Buy Yes 26.0%
No89.0%
Buy No 89.0%

David Lisnard

polymarket · open

$229 vol
Yes21.0%
Buy Yes 21.0%
No94.0%
Buy No 94.0%

François Hollande

polymarket · open

$296 vol
Yes20.0%
Buy Yes 20.0%
No84.0%
Buy No 84.0%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

polymarket · open

$270 vol
Yes15.0%
Buy Yes 15.0%
No91.0%
Buy No 91.0%

Gabriel Attal

polymarket · open

$227 vol
Yes14.0%
Buy Yes 14.0%
No91.0%
Buy No 91.0%

Dominique de Villepin

polymarket · open

$154 vol
Yes9.30%
Buy Yes 9.30%
No96.0%
Buy No 96.0%

François Ruffin

polymarket · open

$322 vol
Yes9.20%
Buy Yes 9.20%
No97.1%
Buy No 97.1%

Bruno Retailleau

polymarket · open

$84 vol
Yes9.00%
Buy Yes 9.00%
No99.0%
Buy No 99.0%

Sarah Knafo

polymarket · open

$107 vol
Yes8.90%
Buy Yes 8.90%
No99.6%
Buy No 99.6%

Jordan Bardella

polymarket · open

$148 vol
Yes4.90%
Buy Yes 4.90%
No99.0%
Buy No 99.0%

Marine Le Pen

polymarket · open

$1.3K vol
Yes4.70%
Buy Yes 4.70%
No98.9%
Buy No 98.9%

Marine Tondelier

polymarket · open

$153 vol
Yes4.00%
Buy Yes 4.00%
No99.0%
Buy No 99.0%

Sébastien Lecornu

polymarket · open

$1.6K vol
Yes3.10%
Buy Yes 3.10%
No98.8%
Buy No 98.8%

Éric Zemmour

polymarket · open

$728 vol
Yes2.90%
Buy Yes 2.90%
No98.9%
Buy No 98.9%

Timeline

Opened
Nov 6, 2026
Closes
Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

French Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place | Jupiter Prediction | CoinDuck