December 31, 2027
polymarket · open
Yes18.4%
Buy Yes 18.4%
No91.5%
Buy No 91.5%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
politicspolitics· POLY-18571
Will any country leave NATO by...?
$1.4M volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$4.2K vol
June 30, 2027
polymarket · open
Yes7.00%
Buy Yes 7.00%
No96.0%
Buy No 96.0%
December 31, 2026
polymarket · open
Yes4.40%
Buy Yes 4.40%
No97.6%
Buy No 97.6%
June 30, 2026
polymarket · closed
Yes0.00%
Buy Yes 0.00%
No0.00%
Buy No 0.00%
December 31, 2025
polymarket · closed
Yes0.00%
Buy Yes 0.00%
No0.00%
Buy No 0.00%
Timeline
- Opened
- Oct 30, 2026
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.