Anthropic
polymarket · open
Yes60.0%
Buy Yes 60.0%
No75.0%
Buy No 75.0%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
tech· POLY-428400
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$237.3K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$4.8K vol
OpenAI
polymarket · open
Yes18.0%
Buy Yes 18.0%
No88.0%
Buy No 88.0%
Meta
polymarket · open
Yes9.00%
Buy Yes 9.00%
No93.0%
Buy No 93.0%
xAI
polymarket · open
Yes7.00%
Buy Yes 7.00%
No95.0%
Buy No 95.0%
Amazon
polymarket · open
Yes5.20%
Buy Yes 5.20%
No96.6%
Buy No 96.6%
Alibaba
polymarket · open
Yes4.80%
Buy Yes 4.80%
No97.8%
Buy No 97.8%
Z.ai
polymarket · open
Yes4.60%
Buy Yes 4.60%
No96.0%
Buy No 96.0%
Microsoft
polymarket · open
Yes4.60%
Buy Yes 4.60%
No98.8%
Buy No 98.8%
DeepSeek
polymarket · open
Yes4.40%
Buy Yes 4.40%
No98.0%
Buy No 98.0%
Baidu
polymarket · open
Yes4.00%
Buy Yes 4.00%
No98.0%
Buy No 98.0%
Moonshot
polymarket · open
Yes3.60%
Buy Yes 3.60%
No98.3%
Buy No 98.3%
Meituan
polymarket · open
Yes3.20%
Buy Yes 3.20%
No98.3%
Buy No 98.3%
Mistral
polymarket · open
Yes3.00%
Buy Yes 3.00%
No98.0%
Buy No 98.0%
ByteDance
polymarket · open
Yes3.00%
Buy Yes 3.00%
No99.7%
Buy No 99.7%
polymarket · closed
Yes0.00%
Buy Yes 0.00%
No0.00%
Buy No 0.00%
Timeline
- Opened
- Oct 6, 2026
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.