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politics· POLY-684337

Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?

$51.6K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970

Market outcomes

Current implied probabilities and volume.

3 markets

March 31

polymarket · open

$10.1K vol

Yes4.40%

Buy Yes 4.40%

No95.9%

Buy No 95.9%

December 31

polymarket · open

$39.6K vol

Yes3.00%

Buy Yes 3.00%

No98.5%

Buy No 98.5%

July 31

polymarket · closed

$2.0K vol

Yes0.00%

Buy Yes 0.00%

No0.00%

Buy No 0.00%

Timeline

Opened: Jul 9, 2026
Closes: Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.