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politicsgeopolitics· POLY-73866

How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

$135.5K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970

Market outcomes

Current implied probabilities and volume.

10 markets

400-500k

polymarket · open

$10.6K vol

Yes75.0%

Buy Yes 75.0%

No57.0%

Buy No 57.0%

300-400k

polymarket · open

$15.9K vol

Yes12.0%

Buy Yes 12.0%

No93.0%

Buy No 93.0%

500-600k

polymarket · open

$8.2K vol

Yes10.7%

Buy Yes 10.7%

No98.9%

Buy No 98.9%

200-300k

polymarket · open

$10.4K vol

Yes7.50%

Buy Yes 7.50%

No97.6%

Buy No 97.6%

900k-1m

polymarket · open

$7.5K vol

Yes5.00%

Buy Yes 5.00%

No99.0%

Buy No 99.0%

>1m

polymarket · open

$7.4K vol

Yes3.80%

Buy Yes 3.80%

No98.4%

Buy No 98.4%

600-700k

polymarket · open

$7.4K vol

Yes2.90%

Buy Yes 2.90%

No99.4%

Buy No 99.4%

<200k

polymarket · open

$10.9K vol

Yes2.60%

Buy Yes 2.60%

No99.2%

Buy No 99.2%

800-900k

polymarket · open

$14.7K vol

Yes2.40%

Buy Yes 2.40%

No99.3%

Buy No 99.3%

700-800k

polymarket · open

$42.6K vol

Yes2.20%

Buy Yes 2.20%

No99.4%

Buy No 99.4%

Timeline

Opened: Nov 5, 2025
Closes: Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.