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politics· POLY-83804

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$608.1K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970

Market outcomes

Current implied probabilities and volume.

28 markets

Ryan Salame

polymarket · open

$35.8K vol

Yes16.0%

Buy Yes 16.0%

No89.0%

Buy No 89.0%

Elon Musk

polymarket · open

$66.2K vol

Yes15.1%

Buy Yes 15.1%

No85.0%

Buy No 85.0%

Keonne Rodriguez

polymarket · open

$21.0K vol

Yes15.0%

Buy Yes 15.0%

No90.0%

Buy No 90.0%

Stefan Brodie

polymarket · open

$4.7K vol

Yes9.00%

Buy Yes 9.00%

No94.0%

Buy No 94.0%

Joe Exotic

polymarket · open

$7.7K vol

Yes8.00%

Buy Yes 8.00%

No93.0%

Buy No 93.0%

Himself

polymarket · open

$35.6K vol

Yes7.90%

Buy Yes 7.90%

No93.2%

Buy No 93.2%

Daniel Penny

polymarket · open

$2.0K vol

Yes7.30%

Buy Yes 7.30%

No96.2%

Buy No 96.2%

Donald Brodie

polymarket · open

$21.0K vol

Yes7.00%

Buy Yes 7.00%

No96.0%

Buy No 96.0%

Steve Bannon

polymarket · open

$13.7K vol

Yes6.50%

Buy Yes 6.50%

No97.4%

Buy No 97.4%

Matt Gaetz

polymarket · open

$8.4K vol

Yes6.00%

Buy Yes 6.00%

No95.0%

Buy No 95.0%

Roger Stone

polymarket · open

$11.8K vol

Yes5.30%

Buy Yes 5.30%

No95.8%

Buy No 95.8%

Eric Adams

polymarket · open

$1.9K vol

Yes5.00%

Buy Yes 5.00%

No98.6%

Buy No 98.6%

Diddy

polymarket · open

$36.3K vol

Yes4.90%

Buy Yes 4.90%

No97.6%

Buy No 97.6%

Ghislaine Maxwell

polymarket · open

$31.2K vol

Yes4.80%

Buy Yes 4.80%

No96.3%

Buy No 96.3%

Young Thug

polymarket · open

$5.4K vol

Yes4.60%

Buy Yes 4.60%

No95.8%

Buy No 95.8%

Antoine Massey

polymarket · open

$2.5K vol

Yes4.40%

Buy Yes 4.40%

No98.6%

Buy No 98.6%

Derek Chauvin

polymarket · open

$30.1K vol

Yes4.30%

Buy Yes 4.30%

No96.3%

Buy No 96.3%

Roger Ver

polymarket · open

$6.0K vol

Yes4.30%

Buy Yes 4.30%

No98.8%

Buy No 98.8%

Julian Assange

polymarket · open

$5.9K vol

Yes4.20%

Buy Yes 4.20%

No96.3%

Buy No 96.3%

Martin Shkreli

polymarket · open

$40.6K vol

Yes4.10%

Buy Yes 4.10%

No98.7%

Buy No 98.7%

Andrew Tate

polymarket · open

$1.7K vol

Yes4.00%

Buy Yes 4.00%

No96.1%

Buy No 96.1%

Nicolas Maduro

polymarket · open

$11.4K vol

Yes3.90%

Buy Yes 3.90%

No97.3%

Buy No 97.3%

Edward Snowden

polymarket · open

$3.3K vol

Yes3.90%

Buy Yes 3.90%

No96.3%

Buy No 96.3%

Sam Bankman-Fried

polymarket · open

$159.1K vol

Yes3.70%

Buy Yes 3.70%

No97.5%

Buy No 97.5%

Elizabeth Holmes

polymarket · open

$9.3K vol

Yes3.70%

Buy Yes 3.70%

No96.8%

Buy No 96.8%

Bob Menendez

polymarket · open

$3.8K vol

Yes3.50%

Buy Yes 3.50%

No98.5%

Buy No 98.5%

Hunter Biden

polymarket · open

$5.7K vol

Yes3.30%

Buy Yes 3.30%

No99.1%

Buy No 99.1%

Do Kwon

polymarket · open

$26.1K vol

Yes3.00%

Buy Yes 3.00%

No97.6%

Buy No 97.6%

Timeline

Opened: Dec 5, 2025
Closes: Jan 1, 1970

Rules summary

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.