Below 4.70%
polymarket · open
Yes89.2%
Buy Yes 89.2%
No13.6%
Buy No 13.6%
Jupiter Trending
Prediction markets on Solana — trending events and market activity
economics· POLY-956932
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$439.7K volumeCloses Jan 1, 1970
Market outcomes
Current implied probabilities and volume.
$24.9K vol
Below 4.65%
polymarket · open
Yes85.0%
Buy Yes 85.0%
No21.0%
Buy No 21.0%
Below 4.60%
polymarket · open
Yes64.0%
Buy Yes 64.0%
No38.0%
Buy No 38.0%
Below 4.55%
polymarket · open
Yes56.0%
Buy Yes 56.0%
No46.0%
Buy No 46.0%
Below 4.50%
polymarket · open
Yes50.0%
Buy Yes 50.0%
No72.0%
Buy No 72.0%
Below 4.45%
polymarket · open
Yes36.0%
Buy Yes 36.0%
No67.0%
Buy No 67.0%
Below 4.40%
polymarket · open
Yes29.0%
Buy Yes 29.0%
No73.0%
Buy No 73.0%
Below 4.30%
polymarket · open
Yes24.6%
Buy Yes 24.6%
No83.6%
Buy No 83.6%
Below 4.35%
polymarket · open
Yes22.0%
Buy Yes 22.0%
No80.0%
Buy No 80.0%
Below 4.25%
polymarket · open
Yes14.9%
Buy Yes 14.9%
No87.7%
Buy No 87.7%
Below 4.20%
polymarket · open
Yes14.4%
Buy Yes 14.4%
No86.6%
Buy No 86.6%
Below 4.10%
polymarket · open
Yes13.0%
Buy Yes 13.0%
No89.9%
Buy No 89.9%
Below 4.00%
polymarket · open
Yes6.60%
Buy Yes 6.60%
No96.1%
Buy No 96.1%
Timeline
- Opened
- Oct 23, 2026
- Closes
- Jan 1, 1970
Rules summary
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).