CFTC prediction-market rules reach White House review as states fight in court

WASHINGTON, Oct. 2, 2026 — The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent prediction-market rulemaking to the White House for review. The move marks another step in the ongoing debate over how event contracts should be regulated primarily by federal derivatives law or state gambling rules.

Key facts

• An Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs record says the CFTC submitted a proposed rule titled “Further Definition of ‘Swap’ to Include Event Contracts.” The record lists Sept. 28, 2026, as the received date and identifies the action as a proposed rule.
• Independent reporting by The Block said the CFTC submitted two proposals: one concerning the definition of swaps and event contracts, and another intended to exclude casino-style gambling products. The report said the proposals were before OIRA, which reviews federal regulations before publication.
• The CFTC says it filed lawsuits in April against Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois, arguing that its authority over event contracts is exclusive and that state-by-state restrictions create a more fragmented regulatory framework.

Information and Regulatory Affairs office

The OIRA record establishes that at least one CFTC event-contract proposal had entered White House regulatory review. It does not, on its own, show that either proposal had been approved, published as a final rule or taken effect.

According to the review, records identifies the swap-definition proposal as not economically significant and says it is subject to the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The CFTC’s stated position is that event contracts traded on registered contract markets fall within its federal jurisdiction. In its April 2 release, the agency said states had attempted to outlaw, regulate or otherwise restrain CFTC-registered markets, and it described a national framework as preferable to a patchwork of state requirements.

The CFTC also said it had issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking to clarify how its regulations apply to prediction markets.

The legal conflict remains unsettled. The Hill reported that a federal appeals court in New Jersey blocked enforcement of state sports-gambling laws against Kalshi, while the Ninth Circuit later sided with Nevada regulators in a separate case involving Kalshi’s sports contracts. That split has helped push the question toward possible Supreme Court review, although the court has not agreed to hear the dispute.

What happens next

OIRA’s review is the confirmed next stage shown in the federal record. The CFTC proposals must still proceed through the federal rulemaking process before any final text, effective date or enforceable nationwide policy can be established.

The state litigation and any related appellate or Supreme Court proceedings will continue separately.