Hyperliquid to Enable Permissionless Prediction Markets in Upcoming HIP-4 Upgrade

Hyperliquid is preparing an upgrade that would let outside builders create prediction markets on the network, extending HIP-4 beyond its current validator-controlled launch.

The planned change is aimed at opening the platform’s outcome-market system to permissionless deployment. Hyperliquid says the feature will arrive on testnet first and later move to mainnet, although it has not published a final mainnet release date.

From Validator Markets to Open Deployment

HIP-4 went live on Hyperliquid’s mainnet in May and introduced “outcome trading,” a contract design for markets that resolve within a fixed range. Prediction markets are one application of the primitive, alongside bounded options-like products.

At present, the available markets remain under validator authority. The forthcoming enhancement would allow anyone who meets the deployment requirements to launch a market, provided the contract follows templates approved by validators. Existing validator-created markets will not disappear, but Hyperliquid expects them to become the exception rather than the norm.

The structure gives builders room to launch contracts while templates establish baseline rules for definitions, settlement and market behavior.

How HIP-4 Contracts Work

Unlike leveraged perpetual futures, HIP-4 outcome contracts are fully collateralized. A typical binary market has a Yes side and a No side, with prices generally representing the market’s implied probability. At settlement, one side converts to the quote asset and the other side expires without value.

There is no leverage or liquidation process in the basic design. Settlement occurs automatically through Hyperliquid’s trading infrastructure, rather than requiring users to submit a separate redemption transaction. The system also supports “questions” that link several outcomes, allowing exactly one result to settle as Yes while the others settle as No.

The first mainnet product was a recurring Bitcoin price binary that settles daily against HyperCore’s BTC mark price. Hyperliquid’s documentation says additional markets and features are being introduced in stages, making the permissionless deployment layer a further step in the rollout rather than the initial HIP-4 launch itself.

Stakes and Safeguards

Builders seeking to deploy permissionless prediction markets will be required to stake 500,000 HYPE. That stake can be slashed if a validator vote finds that a market was poorly defined or settled incorrectly. The requirement gives the network a financial penalty to apply when a deployer’s design or operation threatens the reliability of the contract.

• Rollout: Testnet first, followed by a later mainnet deployment.
• Eligibility: Markets must use validator-approved templates.
• Economic requirement: Deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE.
• Builder revenue: Deployers may receive up to 50% of trading-fee revenue.

Validator-controlled markets will remain available for unusual events, but Hyperliquid has indicated that ideally fewer than 10 would be created each year.

A New Contest in Prediction Markets

The move puts Hyperliquid more directly alongside Polymarket and Kalshi, the two best-known venues in the growing prediction-market sector. Hyperliquid’s distinction is infrastructure: HIP-4 operates within the same on-chain trading environment as the network’s spot and perpetual markets, giving crypto-native users a route to trade event outcomes without moving to a separate platform.

The next milestone is testnet. Until then, permissionless deployment remains planned while validator-curated HIP-4 markets operate on mainnet.